Goode’s lead slips in 5th District race

SARAH ARKIN
Register & Bee staff writer
Published: October 8, 2008

Despite a significant gain by his Democratic challenger Tom Perriello, incumbent Congressman Virgil Goode remains ahead in the most recent poll of the 5th District congressional race.

A Survey USA poll released Tuesday shows that 55 percent of likely 5th District voters support their incumbent congressman versus 42 percent who support placing a new man in Washington.

Goode, R-5th, said Wednesday he was pleased to be up by 13 points at this late date in the campaign.

“As you know, polls don’t vote and I am urging my supporters to redouble their efforts,” he said, “and we’re working hard every day between now and election.”

While Goode holds a comfortable lead, just over half of the people who said they would vote for him also reported they might change their minds before Election Day.

The poll, conducted Oct. 6–7, breaks down a variety of demographic categories and shows that Goode leads by 17 points among men and 11 among women. He holds a strong 89 percent of Republican votes, about constant from the last poll published in mid-August. Perriello claimed 85 percent of Democratic voters, up nearly 20 points since the last poll.

Perriello has more than halved the gap between himself and Goode in the new poll. In August, he trailed the six-term congressman by 34 percentage points, earning support from 30 percent of likely voters.

Voters under 50 prefer Goode by 4 points, down from 33 points since August. The poll indicates that independent voters opt for Goode by a 2-to-1 margin and only 3 percent of the electorate is undecided.

“The reason we are gaining support is because Tom Perriello is offering real solutions on the economy, gas prices, and health care, when all we’ve seen from Congressman Goode is lies, false attacks and ducking debates,” Jessica Barba, Perriello’s communications director, said in a written statement.

The campaign has heated up over the past few weeks with the incumbent congressman launching a controversial negative attack ad against Perriello and canceling a televised debate.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Goode will likely stay in his seat after the Nov. 4 election, but it’s going to be a tough race.

He said it’s a tough year for Republicans across the country, alluding to the financial meltdown and the loss of momentum by the John McCain and Sarah Palin presidential ticket.

“The ‘R’ has become a scarlet letter in 2008, just as it was in 2006,” Sabato said, “but let’s remember that Goode won in 2006.”

Sabato conceded that there are always upsets on election night, but doesn’t think this year’s 5th District race will be one of them.

“Everyone said that this would probably be Goode’s toughest race since he was elected and I think it will be closer, but he’s still the favorite,” Sabato said.