McCain takes Southside lead in close poll

By Bernard Baker

Published: October 2, 2008

Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama continue to run neck and neck in Virginia, according to a new poll.

The Mason-Dixon Virginia Poll, which was conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 1, shows McCain is favored by 48 percent of the state’s voters, compared to 45 percent for Obama. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent.

A political analyst from Virginia Tech said the poll shows Virginia is McCain’s to lose.

“If Virginia turns, Virginia will not be the deciding 13 electoral votes. It will be a more broad victory,” Robert Denton, a Virginia Tech government professor, said Thursday. “The factors are the economy, turn out and new voters.”

The poll showed McCain making minor inroads in Lynchburg and the Southside area. The last poll, conducted Sept. 17-22, indicated 49 percent of voters in Southside backed McCain, with 41 percent backing Obama. Now McCain leads 51 to 40 percent in the region.

Obama leads in Northern Virginia by 20 points with approval from 57 percent of voters. Denton said Obama will need to reach 60 percent there in order to improve his chances of winning the state.

In Hampton Roads, Obama is backed by 46 percent of voters and is virtually tied with McCain, who is backed by 47 percent of voters. A few weeks ago, McCain showed an advantage of 48 to 44 percent.

Voters polled gave Obama the winner’s nod on the first debate, which was held Sept 25 in Oxford, Miss. Obama was favored by 39 percent of voters, with 29 percent indicating McCain won and 27 percent said it was a tie.

“The winner of the first debate usually gains about 4 points,” Denton said. “In addition to this financial situation, the advantage has gone to the Democrats, where we’ve seen from 6 to 8 points in favor.”

Denton said many people tapped Obama as the debate’s winner because he was considered more presidential and people were comfortable with him.

He pointed out that North Carolina is now considered a battleground state, while Colorado and Minnesota are solidly in Obama’s camp.

Denton said the next two presidential debates should help undecided voters make up their minds about who to support.

“With each debate, people are making up their minds even more …,” he said.

Gail Gitcho, a spokeswoman for McCain, said the Republican candidate’s camp is confident he will win in November.

“For the next 30 days, we are going to see varying poll numbers that show us up and down, that is the reality of a battleground state,” she said. “No matter where the poll numbers show us, we are going to continue working very hard to secure a victory in November. We are confident that we will win Virginia because John McCain and Sarah Palin’s message of reforming Washington, lowering taxes and bringing our economy back on track is resonating with voters across the state.”

The spokesman for Obama’s Virginia campaign said polls are going to be all over the place in the coming weeks.

“We anticipate a close race, but at the end of the day, we think Virginia voters are going to vote for Barack Obama and change – tax relief for the middle class, trade deals that protect American workers and a health care plan that lowers costs and covers everyone,” Kevin Griffis said. “That’s the choice before voters — change versus John McCain and four more years of the same policies that got us into this mess.”