Poll: Obama breaks tie in Va., takes 8-point lead over McCain

By Bernard Baker

Published: October 9, 2008

While a Mason-Dixon poll issued last week showed Virginia tied in the presidential race, a new survey shows Sen. Barack Obama increasing his lead.

The Democratic candidate is ahead of Republican Sen. John McCain 51 percent to 43, according to Public Policy Polling.

How come? Because of the failing economy, 63 percent of those polled said.

“Virginia is showing the same trends as pretty much every other battleground state,” Dean Debnam, of Public Policy Polling based in Raleigh, N.C., said. “Voters are turning toward the Democrats as concern over the economy mounts, and they’re also a lot less enamored with Sarah Palin than they were shortly after the Republican convention.”

Local Democrats are pleased with the results, but are taking nothing for granted.

“I am not surprised by the poll. When you factor in the newly registered voters that are not being polled, I believe Obama’s margin should be even greater,” Sheila Baynes, chairman of the Danville Democratic Committee, said. “Referring to Northern Virginians as ‘communists’ is no way to earn votes. The economy is bad, middle-class Americans are sinking fast — sound bites and name calling is no solution.”

The McCain campaign thinks the poll numbers are wrong.

“Those aren’t the trends we have been seeing, but we are going to see a number of wide-ranging poll numbers down the home stretch,” Gail Gitcho, Mid-Atlantic regional communications director for John McCain 2008, said. “Voters in Virginia are excited and enthusiastically supporting John McCain and Sarah Palin because of their message of lower taxes, stronger economy and innovative solutions to our energy crisis.”

Obama is doing better with white voters, reducing the gap from 60-35 in a previous poll to 52-42, the poll noted. Six percent of voters remain undecided, but Obama seems to be doing well with Independents.

Obama’s running mate, Joe Biden, has a 46 percent approval rate compared to 37 percent for Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Former Gov. Mark Warner continues to hold a commanding lead in the U.S. Senate race. He is up 58-31 over Jim Gilmore.

The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, and has a 3.2 percent margin of error.

Contact Bernard Baker at or (434) 791-7986.